22nd AIAI 2026, 16 - 19 July 2026, Chania, Crete, Greece

Equipment Digital Twin for Short-Horizon Forecasting and Residual- Based Anomaly Detection

Yasmal Asli, Samur Mustafa Oktay, Sahin Ocan, Kusoglu Kaya Gizem, Ozdemir Onur, Atasever Sibel, Senses Kaan

Abstract:

  In refinery operations, compressors ensure process continuity and a reliable hydrogen supply. Therefore, early fault detection is essential for operational safety and economic performance. This study presents a Digital Twin (DT) framework at the equipment level for short-term forecasting and residual-based anomaly detection. This framework is applied to a reciprocating net gas compressor. We employ recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) layers to model the compressor's normal behavior using multivariate process time-series data collected at a 15-minute sampling interval. Model perfor-mance is evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The GRU-128 architecture is identified as a suitable configu-ration. Anomaly detection is performed through residual analysis, where de-viations between actual measurements and model predictions are monitored using exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart by considering control limits. Beyond offline validation, the proposed approach is deployed in a real-time operational environment using the Dataiku plat-form. Residual-based indicators are continuously visualized on an interactive dashboard, enabling automatic alert generation when control limits are ex-ceeded. Detected anomalies are validated simultaneously against operational records, demonstrating temporal consistency between model alerts and actual process deviations. These results confirm that DT framework ensures coher-ence between offline analytical studies and real-time deployment. This framework provides reliable early-warning capability and practical decision support for predictive maintenance in industrial compressor systems.  

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