| The paper analyses the link between irregular border crossings, smuggling crimes, and total irregular immigrants at the Serbian-Romanian border using wavelet methodology. It distinguishes between irregular and smuggled immigrants, covering data from January 2015 to December 2023. The key findings evidence a positive co-movement between irregular immigrants and crossing cases in the short run, underlining the heightened migration pressure driven by conflicts and instability in migrants' home countries. Variations in smuggling activities and immigration policies demonstrate how smuggling networks adapt to fluctuating demands and law enforcement responses. In the medium term, irregular crossings correlate with sustained increases in irregular immigration, indicating broader socioeconomic influences. However, a lack of significant long-term co-movement suggests that the dynamics of irregular migration and smuggling are reactive and contingent on immediate circumstances rather than following a predictable trajectory. The policy implications of these findings are fourfold. First, the targeted efforts should prioritize identifying vulnerable individuals among irregular migrants, such as unaccompanied minors or those in need of international protection, while ensuring the protection of their fundamental rights. Second, the strong coherence between smuggling networks and irregular migration underscores the urgency of dismantling these networks through international cooperation, intelligence sharing, and operational measures. These efforts should be complemented by robust financial policies and collaborative agreements, particularly with non-EU countries of origin and transit. Third, the absence of long-term co-movements (beyond 32 months) suggests that these relationships are highly reactive and predominantly short-term. This finding has important implications for sustainable policy development, as it indicates that policies should not only respond to immediate migration pressures but also incorporate long-term resilience strategies. This includes addressing broader issues such as integration, infrastructure development, and socio-economic support, especially in regions experiencing high levels of migration. Finally, the development of long-term solutions is crucial to avoiding repetitive cycles of short-term crisis management and fostering the sustainable governance of migration flows. There are several future directions of research. The first direction should focus on a longitudinal analysis of smuggling networks across multiple countries to gain deeper insights into their evolution, organisational structures, and strategies over time. The second direction should examine how specific immigration policies implemented in neighbouring countries (e.g., Hungary and Croatia) affect smuggling routes and the behaviour of smugglers. The third direction should consider expanding datasets to include additional variables, such as demographics (age, gender and nationality), motivations for migration, and the conditions migrants encounter during their journey. Lastly, another important research direction should explore the potential impact of climate change on migration patterns, particularly regarding how environmental changes may compel individuals to turn to smuggling networks as they leave their home countries. |
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